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Election Day Live-blogging

I took today off from work, had breakfast with my mom, visited with some local school board members as they stood in the rain with 'Vote Yes' signs for their referendum, and will soon be headed to the university campus as a poll-watcher. It's Election Day across these United States of America, and I couldn't be more proud of my fellow Americans who've made the decision to go out and vote.

For better or worse, I've decided to live-blog today's election, up to and including the results. The majority of the focus will be on the presidential race, but I'll also post some stuff about the local (Champaign County) elections. So, if you're up for it, feel free to follow-along with me throughout the day as I periodically update this post with news, information and observations.


Final Update - 10:03pm

I'm going to sign-off for the night. With all precincts in for Champaign County, it's pretty much a repeat of 2012, in that Republicans win all countywide seats except for State's Attorney.

Nationally, it looks like we're looking at President-Elect Trump. The number just aren't there for Clinton.

Be good to each other.  'night.


Update # 12 - 9:25pm

75% of the vote is in for Champaign County, and Democrats' lead from Early Voting has all but evaporated.

I'm also going to go ahead and call the presidential race for Donald Trump. Check out my post from October 17th to see why I thought this might happen.

Godspeed, everyone.


Update # 11 - 8:30pm

Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida are all really tight at the moment. If Trump wins those states, he'll win the election. Pure and simple. Done.


Update # 10 - 8:10pm

Just a week or so ago, I predicted a much tighter presidential race. Looks like I should have maybe stayed with that.

To be clear: It still looks like a Clinton win, just not an overwhelming one.


Update # 9 - 7:50pm

It's really early (perhaps too early) to say this, but it looks like Clinton has this in the bag.

And, Early Voting results are in for Champaign County, with good news for Democrats.


Update # 8 - 7:20pm

Tammy Duckworth has been declared the winner of the US Senate race here in Illinois. She defeats Republican incumbent Mark Kirk.

Meanwhile, for the states that have been called, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in the Electoral College count, 44-40.


Update # 7 - 6:45pm

Trump has won Indiana, Kentucky and West Virginia. Clinton has won Vermont. Results are beginning to come in for Georgia, but that's likely going to Trump in the end, so no suspense there. Clinton remains competitive in Florida, New Hampshire and Virginia.

Here in Champaign County, turnout has continued to be strong on campus. The Champaign County Clerk will release the results of early voting (something like 38,000 votes) shortly after 7pm CST.


Update # 6 - 5:40pm

(Very) early results are trickling-in from Indiana, Kentucky and New Hampshire. Trump leads handily in all three states, but barely 1% of the vote is in from each state, and keep in mind what I mentioned in the previous update: where the votes are coming from matters. So far, it sounds like just rural New Hampshire is reporting-in.


Update # 5 - 5:15pm

With polls beginning to close soon across several states, I wanted to talk briefly about turnout. You hear a lot about it, but voter turnout, in and of itself, isn't indicative of which candidates will win what races. Where voter turnout is at means more than overall turnout. Take Virginia, for instance. Word is that turnout there today has been big. That's cool, but what matters most is the location of the turnout. Rural areas will be better for Trump and Republicans. Urban areas will favor Clinton and Democrats (who were tipped to win the state before today).

So, as the night unfolds, pay close attention to the where. This matters both nationally and at the local level.


Update # 4 - 3:55pm

I've been poll-watching at a campus precinct for a few hours, and the line of students (predominantly white, with a few minorities peppered inbetween) hasn't stopped. Since this is a polling place that allows voters from all over the county to come vote, it would seem difficult to tell how many of the nearly 800 votes cast here so far are centered on the youth vote. But, I'm here to tell you, these are some young people voting. It is therefore probably safe to say that, locally at least, the student vote is strong. Whether or not it's record-breaking strong remains to be seen.


Update # 3 - 2:00pm

Trump has filed a lawsuit in Nevada regarding their early voting (where Clinton is projected to do strongly). I'm reminded of the line from Pet Shop Boys' song Domino Dancing, "Do you play to win, or are you just a bad loser?"


Update # 2 - 1:00pm

Because this has been a particularly hostile election cycle, I wanted to offer a few thoughts on how we interact with one another regarding how we choose to vote.

The main thing is, while we don't have to agree with how someone votes, I feel like we should respect their right to choose to vote that way. Shaming someone because they vote third party, or threatening to never speak with someone again because they voted for Trump, or calling someone an idiot because they voted for Hillary Clinton is antithetical to the spirit of what our right to vote stands for. People have the right to vote for whomever they want. Disagree with their vote if you choose, but don't discourage their right to make said vote.

The world will go on after today, for better or worse. How we choose to comport ourselves will speak volumes about who we are, perhaps more so than the actual election results.


Update # 1 - 12:45pm

The map you see at the top of this post is what I predict will be the final outcome of the 2016 presidential race. Those who know me know that, until very recently, I was extremely worried about a possible Trump win. If Hillary was going to pull it off, it would be close. I don't think so anymore. In fact, I feel like HRC will win handily, even in Ohio (which, of all the above predictions, is the most tenuous).

I feel as though a combination of Latino/a, black, Asian, women, LGBT and college-educated white voters will push Clinton over the top. That, and several people who may identify as Republican, but simply can't bring themselves to vote for Trump. History will be made tonight, and it will be done by electing our first female president.

If I'm wrong, we'll find out soon enough. Many (all?) of my most iffy states are on the east coast, so polls will close there first, and we'll start getting feedback/results before anywhere else. One thing to note: don't take too much stock in the results from New Hampshire. At least, not as indicator about how the night will go. Some have said that if HRC wins New Hampshire (where polling has been tight pretty much the entire race), then she'll do good the rest of the night. That's not necessarily the case. John Kerry won New Hampshire in 2004, by a narrow margin, and lost the overall race.

The other precarious states along the east coast are North Carolina and Florida. Pennsylvania is safe for HRC. People still, for whatever reason, want to make a big deal about it being some nail-biting swing state (much like they do for Colorado), but I think it's safely in the Democratic column. I decided to predict that Florida goes to HRC mostly because of the (perceived) Hispanic vote. North Carolina is, honestly, a toss-up. I have a gut feeling that Ohio will (perhaps surprisingly, given the polling), go to Clinton, as well.

Of course, my gut's been wrong before.


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