Toss-up

Nate Silver and the folks at 538 unveiled their forecast model for the 2020 U.S. presidential election yesterday. You should check it out, if such things interest you. When the model debuted, it gave Biden a 71% chance of winning the election. As of now, it's nudged-up to 72%. As has been noted by 538 (and others) those are same odds they gave Hillary Clinton on Election Day 2016. Take that as you will, but it obviously reinforces the notion that a nearly 30% chance of winning is nothing to take lightly.

Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your political persuasion), I think that Trump has a decent chance of being re-elected in just under 3 months. It brings me no happiness to believe this, and "decent" isn't solid, or great, but some of my Democratic friends are acting like this election is all but over, and I just can't agree. It all comes down to the Electoral College, and Trump could have an advantage there. You can see above the map I made at 270towin.com, where I've done my best guess on how the states will vote. Following is the break down on how I arrived at the results.

First, let's look at the solidly Republican states. There are 20 of them, totaling 126 electoral votes. These states are: Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, South Carolina and Indiana (I know Obama won it in 2008, but he then promptly lost it in 2012, as did Clinton in '16. It is reliably red).

Next up, the solidly Democratic states. There are of 19 them, plus the District of Columbia, accumulating a total of 229 electoral votes. These states include: Hawaii, California, Washington, Oregon, Illinois, New York, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Washington DC, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Minnesota and Virginia. Some may quibble about those last three, but their recent track record makes me confident to put them under the reliably blue column (at least for presidential elections).

So, just looking at solid Democrat and Republican states, Biden appears to have the advantage over Trump, with 183 electoral votes up for grabs. That's where things get tricky. I left Texas, Arizona and Georgia out of the solid R column because, for the last couple of cycles, Democrats have been hoping that those states would become swing states, and swing their way. But, honestly, we're not there yet. So those go for Trump, bringing his electoral total up to 191. Let's add-in North Carolina, as well. It went for Obam in 2008, but I look at it as an Indiana-like fluke more than anything else. That gives Trump 206 electoral votes.

Maine had been trending blue, but split its electoral votes in 2016. That could happen again, so, to account for that, and to be on the cautious/safe side, I've split it again for 2020. Now it's Biden 231, Trump 208. And that leaves us with the true battleground states: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Those six states comprise 99 electoral votes. Right now, Trump has a slight lead in the polls in Ohio, which has been a bellwether for the winner of presidential elections going back decades. Let's give that to Trump. He currently has a more comfortable lead in the polls in Iowa. Plus, that state's 2018 midterm elections were somewhat favorable for Republicans, so we'll add that to Trump's column, as well. That gives him 232 to Biden's 231.

With Iowa and Ohio falling to Trump, the race has tightened to almost a dead heat. There's good news in Pennsylvania for Biden, however, where 'Scranton Joe' is up 5 points in the polls. Let's say he wins Pennsylvania. Biden also, currently, has the same percentage point lead in Wisconsin, giving him another 10 electoral votes. Now, Biden is at 261 electoral votes - just 9 shy of clinching the presidency. Unfortunately, from here on out things begin to look grim. Looking at the Michigan polls, Biden's lead -- once in the double digits -- has been steadily going down over the past few weeks. Who knows where it will be on Election Day? That leaves us with Florida (of course), where Biden has a minimal lead there in the polls.

If Joe Biden wins both Michigan and Florida, then he wins the presidency, 306 electoral votes to 232. That's a shadow of both of Obama's wins, but is more in line with how Trump did four years ago. Conversely, if Trump were to take Michigan and Florida, then he wins 277 to 261. That's a pretty weak victory. Still, he could get a more solid win if some of the states I'm worried about (such as Wisconsin and, yes, Pennsylvania) break for him. And, I don't know about Michigan -- the anti-maskers there seem to be pretty fired-up, and they're likely going to back Trump.

COVID also throws a wrench into things. Some folks will tell you, 'Darn right, it does. It helps Biden!' but I'm not so sure. Trump's handling of the pandemic certainly hasn't helped his standing, but we're still three months out. A lot can happen. Add to all this that I'm hearing rumblings from some on the left of voting third party (again), and the outlook becomes a little more discouraging and unclear. At least it's not like four years ago, when I solemnly predicted a possible Trump win. This time, I really don't know. Well, I take that back. I do know that the polls are likely to tighten-up in the next 12 weeks, and that, I think, will make it a very close race.

Sounds about right for 2020. Nothing's easy, especially this year.