Left to my own devices

I felt somewhat numb a year ago today, watching live video from Washington DC, a horde of angry protesters storming the Capitol. As I saw the swarm breaking through barricades and ascending walls, I remember thinking, "They're going to get into the building. This is really happening." And then I got distracted. It was the middle of a work day. It was busy. A call was coming in, or some or other issue had arisen, I don't remember. The window was minimized, and I'd check back on it later. Later would prove to come along in a few minutes. The horde was breaking windows. They were getting into the Capitol. Reports were saying that certification of the Electoral College vote had been suspended amidst the chaos. Of course it had. That was the point of the exercise. It was what an aggrieved president, in the twilight of his first term, had been bleating on about to the crowds who had gathered to hear him speak that day. Our nation's lawmakers -- Democrats and Republ...

So, the California Recall Election is over , and the effort to remove Governor Gavin Newsom from office was soundly defeated . Good. Perhaps it's the politician in me, but I think that the recall option is terrible. One aspect of assuming elected office is the ability to get your feet wet, learn the ropes, and then try and put forward your agenda. Most terms of office are for four years, and there's something that comes with the assurance that, hey, at least you have that long to try and get some stuff done. The threat of a recall hanging over one's head is counter-productive to the confidence needed in order to push forward an agenda. I'm not saying that politicians should be free to do as they wish, without fear of reprimand or even removal, but 1) voters have the opportunity to dramatically weigh-in once someone's term of office is up, 2) recalls are, in my opinion, in danger of being abused, and 3) there are other options available to remove, say, a governor.

It's Election Day in these great United States of ours. I have today off from work. Our governor declared it a state holiday (though it only seems to apply to certain employers), the idea being that it will be easier for folks to go vote if they don't have to wrangle time-off from work in order to do so. Schools have the day off, as well, so I've heard that's caused issues for some parents. It's never going to be perfect. I applaud the intent.

Election Day here in the U.S. is just two days away, so why not have a little fun (your definition of 'fun' may vary), and try to predict the outcome? We'll also touch, tangentially, on the House and Senate outlook, because I believe the Senate and presidential races to be at least somewhat tied together. There's going to be some (minor) bits of history thrown-in, as well, for better or worse. Are you ready? Let's go.

N ate Silver and the folks at 538 unveiled their  forecast model  for the 2020 U.S. presidential election yesterday. You should check it out, if such things interest you. When the model debuted, it gave Biden a 71% chance of winning the election. As of now, it's nudged-up to 72%. As has been noted by 538 (and others) those are same odds they gave Hillary Clinton on Election Day 2016. Take that as you will, but it obviously reinforces the notion that a nearly 30% chance of winning is nothing to take lightly. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your political persuasion), I think that Trump has a decent chance of being re-elected in just under 3 months. It brings me no happiness to believe this, and "decent" isn't solid, or great, but some of my Democratic friends are acting like this election is all but over, and I just can't agree. It all comes down to the Electoral College, and Trump could have an advantage there. You can see above the map I made at 270to...