Left to my own devices

You may not have heard, but there was a US presidential debate earlier this week. Kamala Harris (current vice-president) vs. Donald Trump (former president). I couldn't stomach to watch it, but of course I read news articles about it afterward, talked with a couple of people in-person the next morning who'd seen it, and of course there was the barrage of social media friends who were commenting on it. It's that last part I wanted to talk about. First, I'm obviously not against someone's debate performance being analyzed. Heck, there are classes in public schools that are all about debate. So, that isn't the issue. What bothers me is how the performances are analyzed. Like, yeah, sure, have a poll asking folks what they thought of the debate, and who they thought did better. That's fine. It's the reactions I've been seeing primarily on social media that are concerning. It's like I'm back in school. Except, these are adults (at least in chron...

Election Day here in the U.S. is just two days away, so why not have a little fun (your definition of 'fun' may vary), and try to predict the outcome? We'll also touch, tangentially, on the House and Senate outlook, because I believe the Senate and presidential races to be at least somewhat tied together. There's going to be some (minor) bits of history thrown-in, as well, for better or worse. Are you ready? Let's go.

N ate Silver and the folks at 538 unveiled their  forecast model  for the 2020 U.S. presidential election yesterday. You should check it out, if such things interest you. When the model debuted, it gave Biden a 71% chance of winning the election. As of now, it's nudged-up to 72%. As has been noted by 538 (and others) those are same odds they gave Hillary Clinton on Election Day 2016. Take that as you will, but it obviously reinforces the notion that a nearly 30% chance of winning is nothing to take lightly. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your political persuasion), I think that Trump has a decent chance of being re-elected in just under 3 months. It brings me no happiness to believe this, and "decent" isn't solid, or great, but some of my Democratic friends are acting like this election is all but over, and I just can't agree. It all comes down to the Electoral College, and Trump could have an advantage there. You can see above the map I made at 270to...