It's Election Day in these great United States of ours. I have today off from work. Our governor declared it a state holiday (though it only seems to apply to certain employers), the idea being that it will be easier for folks to go vote if they don't have to wrangle time-off from work in order to do so. Schools have the day off, as well, so I've heard that's caused issues for some parents. It's never going to be perfect. I applaud the intent.
It hasn't been an eventful day for yours truly, so far. Polls opened locally at 6:00am, and will stay open a full thirteen hours until 7:00pm (CST). I haven't voted yet, deciding to be a traditionalist this year, and vote on Election Day. I had a COVID test on Sunday, which came back negative, so I should be entering the polling place healthy. It will be interesting to see what voter number I'll be, as it may give some (very general) idea of turnout on the day of (in a micro sense, anyway).
For better or worse, I've decided to live-blog today's election, up to and including the results. The majority of the focus will be on the presidential race, but I'll also post some stuff about the local (Champaign County) elections. So, if you're up for it, feel free to follow-along with me throughout the day as I periodically update this post with news, information and observations. Mostly, I'm doing this for myself, as it helps with the nerves.
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Update # 20 - 11:00pm
I think it's time to call it a night. It is becoming increasingly obvious that we won't know who won the presidency until tomorrow at the earliest, and perhaps longer than that. Also, our local election results are trickling in, so all signs point to bedtime. Really, given the way 2020 has gone, I'm not sure why anyone expected a quick and easy election night.
Be well, my friends. Goodnight.
Update # 19 - 10:50pm
It's becoming clearer that we're probably not going to know who won the presidency tonight, and with results in my home county coming very slowly, the results there may not be known tonight, either.
Update # 19 - 10:47pm
Some news outlets are calling Arizona for Biden, while others aren't calling it for anyone yet. I would suggest going with ABC News, which hasn't called it. They've been very, very conservative in their projections tonight. That's a good thing.
Update # 18 - 9:32pm
We have some results for Champaign County. Unclear where the votes are coming from, but they currently favor Republicans. More to come.
Meanwhile, if you're at all paying attention to the national stuff, it's pretty obvious there is no blue wave. Trump and Biden are duking it out for every vote, and when it comes to the House and Senate, it's win-some, lose-some for both Republicans and Democrats.
Update # 17 - 9:00pm
Still no results (at all) in yet for my county. Meanwhile, Biden's percentage in Illinois has fallen to 49.7%.
Update # 16 - 8:46pm
The Associated Press has called Illinois for Biden, and that's a pretty safe bet (if Illinois weren't a safely blue state, then there's some trouble brewing), however, looking at Illinois' vote count, Biden's lead keeps dwindling as the evening goes on. He had been up to 54% at one point, but at the moment he's at 51%. Not sure if this counts early votes, or not, but Biden only being at 51% in Illinois is a bit odd. Does it portend things to come?
Update # 15 - 8:07pm
A lot of the leads Biden has in battleground states appear to be from early/mail-in voting, and will likely be eroded once the Election Day votes (which tend to be more strongly Republican) are counted. Also, Mitch McConnell defeated his Democratic challenger in Kentucky, and it looks like the Republicans will win their Senate seat in North Carolina. I'm really not seeing a blue wave tonight, not nationally.
Update # 14 - 7:50pm
It's early days yet, but the results *so far* seem to be all over the map (no pun intended). Trump looks like he'll win Florida, but Biden is up in states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Ohio... for now. Still a lot of votes to be counted.
Looking at the House and Senate races called so far, there's been good news for Democrats and Republicans. So, yeah, it's a bit of a mixed bag thus far.
Update # 13 - 7:03pm
Polls have now closed in where I'm at in Champaign County. It will probably be another hour or so before we know early voting results. It's slowly becoming nail-biting time.
Update # 12 - 6:53pm
Another hyper-local update: About half-an-hour ago I went to the student union on campus to check out the situation there (would there be a line? would it be quiet?). There was a line, all right. It went through one side of the building, and out the back door. Will be interesting to see what the campus vote percentage is, compared to 2016, and the 2018 midterms.
Update # 11 - 6:43pm
With 72% of the vote in so far, Joe Biden leads in Florida by 2 million votes. You'd rather be ahead than behind, but this year has been so screwy, I'm being very cautious about thinking whether or not a candidate has a chance of winning a battleground state. No clue as to where those votes are coming from (full or partial counties? does it include early and same-day voting, or just one of those? etc.)
Update # 10 - 5:45pm
Yahoo! News has got some preliminary numbers in for Indiana, Kentucky and New Hampshire. Trump is leading in the vote count overall, but Biden has an early (and likely temporary lead) in Kentucky. No idea which counties are reporting so far.
Update # 9 - 5:38pm
Getting hyper-local for a moment... Four years ago, Donald Trump got 36.4% of the vote in Champaign County. That's the lowest a presidential candidate has got here in a general election since George H. W. Bush in 1992. I've been curious as to how he'll do this time. I predict he'll do better. Maybe not a lot better (37% - 39%?), but that 36% feels like a floor, for our county, anyway. Maybe I'll be proven wrong?
Update # 8 - 5:30pm
Nate Silver tweeted a little bit ago about the turnout so far in Broward County, Florida. It seems to be leaning heavily Democratic and Independent. That's not hugely exciting, however, if you check the 2016 results and see that Hillary Clinton got 66.5% of the vote there. Now, if Biden were to be doing really well in a county that went to Trump four years ago, then we'd have a story. Of course, I could be missing a point that Silver was trying to make?
Update # 7 - 5:25pm
Ashley & I finally voted, a little after 4:30pm CST. We were the only two voters at the polling place at the time. The election judges were friendly and efficient, and one of them was the dad of a guy I went to high school with, so I said hi to him. My precinct had an 80% turnout in the 2016 general election. Will be interesting to see what it is this year.
Update # 6 - 2:45pm
Dixville Notch is a very, very, very small township in New Hampshire. Through a unique election law, citizens there are able to cast there ballots at midnight on Election Day. The results are in, and Biden has receive all 5 votes that were cast there. The fact that the Democrat won there should be taken with a grain of proverbial salt, as Hillary Clinton also won the township four years ago. What is notable this time, however, is that Biden is the first presidential candidate to win all of the Dixville Notch votes since 1960. Again, that's 5 people, so keep your hair on.
Update # 5 - 2:30pm
Tom Kacich had an article in yesterday's News-Gazette which may be of interest to local readers. It's all about when we can expect results to start being posted here in Champaign County. Sounds like early voting results should be known around 8:00pm tonight.
Update # 4 - 2:07pm
Early (like, really early) this morning, Nate Silver tweeted some what-if scenarios for the election. This one exactly matches what my prediction from a couple days ago. Silver writes:
"Trump beating his polls by 3 points results in a tenuous win for Biden, on the other hand. This is a winning map for Biden - he has the cushion to withstand a 2016-style polling error - but might be tough for Democrats to hold the Senate and this race could take a long time to call."
That's pretty much what I'm thinking. If you want to see the map, look at the top of this post.
The margin of who wins Florida will say a lot. The Sunshine State counts its votes pretty quickly. If it's too close to call, then we've got a long few days (if not weeks) ahead of us. If, however, Florida can be called fairly early for either candidate, then it's goodnight Vienna.
Update # 3 - 1:25pm
Rich Miller over at Capitol Fax has some super interesting information up about early voting numbers, along with some info about how voting is going today across the state of Illinois. Also included is always-welcome historical data.
Update # 2 - 11:10am
Here's a thorough and fascinating (to me, anyway) News-Gazette article by Ben Zigterman, about our local campus/student voting. It sounds like early voting on campus has been fairly strong, but it remains to be seen how many students actually vote on Election Day. This goes to a deeper curiosity I have, and something I addressed in my Thoughts on an Election post from two days ago: Do big early voting/vote-by-mail numbers mean a bigger turnout overall? I'm not so sure, but we'll see.
Update # 1 - 10:45am
The map you see at the top of this post is what I predict will be the final outcome of the 2020 presidential race. It's a crapshoot, really. I could see Biden losing Pennsylvania (and, with that, the presidency). The best I can see Trump doing is to repeat his 2016 Electoral College map, where he garnered 306 Electoral votes. I still think it will be a close election, so am going to say that his best would likely be 280. If so, he would join Obama in doing worse in his re-election than his initial win. For the record, Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, and Clinton all performed better in the Electoral College in their re-elections.
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